Check Your Conspiracy, Liberals

Conspiracy theories, I've written about them to some level in previous posts, but things have quickly shifted since then. For a while now, I've watched as the mainstreaming of conspiracy theories reshape the political landscape. Quite simply, topics that were once largely esoteric and decided by dull policy debate are now clouded by partisanship and largely hyperbolic rhetoric.

I sat through eight years of this, but it truly began to take shape in 2010 when further right of center politicians capitalized on the messages of doom and gloom; getting elected to roles within our government at both the state and federal levels. However, the events between now and then are far too extensive to cover here.

Taking us to today, we have a President that ran a campaign that appealed to a lot of voters. I do not wish to diminish the concerns of the frustrated and disenfranchised. It is not a simple matter to analyze the reason of why voters chose Trump at the macro level. This does not change the fact, however, that a large part of his success was fueled by hyperbole, lies, and conspiracy theories (e.g. birther, thousands of Muslims celebrating 9/11, 42% unemployment rate, blacks commit 81% of white murders, illegals commit more crimes than citizens, all unfavorable polls are rigged, 30 millions illegals in America. And these false statements were candidate Trump, not President Trump)

Trump did not create a lot of these conspiracy theories, but he sure as hell capitalized on them. He continued the notion that the burden of proof is quite literally on every single other person to prove the absurd claim incorrect. So often I'll hear "prove him wrong". No, I'm sorry, if someone tries to sell me a chocolate bar, but it looks and smells like bullshit, you'd better believe I'm going to expect the salesman to prove otherwise before I buy it.

Now you may notice, this was directed at liberals. I want to address this head on before it gets worse. The amount of direct hypocrisy that is going on since the election, on both sides, is staggering. For eight years of Obama we had right wing talking heads that spewed unverified bullshit that people ate up because it fit their preconceived bias. To me, bullshit is bullshit, I don't care if the bull was liberal or conservative.

More specifically, this concerns the Trump-Russia connection. Many liberals are foaming at the mouth, just impatiently waiting for the bombshell to drop, theorizing outcomes, and readying the noose. Do I find it strange so many connections keep popping up? Yes. Do I find it suspicious that Trump and Co. keep deflecting on the subject. Yes. But none of this is proof.

While I understand that the court of public opinion requires less evidence, and why I acknowledge my own bias, I try damn hard not to jump to conclusions. And as I have written about before, I try to have some faith in our institutions despite their flaws. Forgive the obvious quote, but Socrates famously stated "The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing". The lack of self doubt that exists in the political climate is so frustrating.

Let me be a little more specific about the hypocrisy to which I speak, because they are so direct it's almost strange (and yes, they go both ways). Trump and associates are under investigation by the FBI and House Intelligence committee for possible ties to Russia and their election interference. Similarly Clinton was also under FBI investigation for which conservatives wanted Clinton in prison, but many liberals are just as quick to want to hang Trump even though the investigation has not concluded and they have not personally seen any of the intelligence. Michael Flynn requested immunity. Various Clinton staffers were granted immunity, both Flynn himself and Trump indicated that implied guilt, which it does not, but many liberals want to use that as evidence of guilt against him.

Is it possible, once all of the dust settles, that it is proven the Trump team colluded with the Russian government to sway the election results though various methods. Yes, I think we can say that is within the realm of possibility. But it also possible that the FBI and House committee will reach their conclusions and find no sufficient evidence of collusion. What will liberals do then, accuse these institutions of the same corruption as we saw from conservatives when they cleared Clinton? If so, that's a conspiracy I could not even begin to unpack. FBI and intelligence committees that are so corrupt they're playing both sides of the aisle?

Am always, am I saying conspiracies do not happen and corruption does not exist? Of course not. But the question again becomes do we have enough faith in our institutions to let them do their job, even if it may be in a flawed manner? If the answer is no, then we have a much larger problem than who is in the Whitehouse.

We continue to have a President that pushes conspiracy theories while offering no evidence, following a pattern of using anecdotal or circumstantial evidence out of context to "prove" the point after the fact (e.g. Nunes "briefing" the President of evidence he got from the Whitehouse that do not even remotely prove the wiretapping claim or Susan Rice requesting intelligence as National Security Advisor on intelligence that was not targeting the Trump campaign). This is infuriating. My hope is that Liberals do not become so desperate to take Trump down that they further disenfranchise his supporters with speculation they cannot prove.

There is plenty of proven nonsense regarding Trump to address without getting bogged down on that which we do not really have control. Trump's hyperbole simply cannot be combated with further hyperbole. Those opposed to Trump on any issue or at any level should focus their efforts on things within their control, it's going to take hard work, but as always, this is our county.

The Election is Rigged? If You Say So…

I wanted to speak (as briefly as possible) about the upcoming election, looking at a troubling and widespread claim, election rigging. First off, this will not be a post aimed at favoring one candidate over another, I hope the tightening that is taking place in the polls will be evidence enough of this fact. This is rather a hope to, again, encourage people to maintain faith in the system until there’s actual evidence to not.

The thought that this election has been rigged has come to full blown conspiracy. This seems to have been broken into a few segments that I will list below.

1. The media is rigged: this is not a new complaint, and I will not be spending significant time on this section.
2. The system is rigged: This has included all federal government agencies favoring one candidate over the other. Again, I do not intend to tackle this subject at length either; it’s far too broad a topi
3. The election itself is rigged: that polls are rigged, votes are being changed, that voters for a certain candidate are voting multiple times etc., this is where I will aim my focus.

On the first two, I’m going to simplify the hell out of my thoughts. I will say that, for a multitude of reasons I believe there is an inherent liberal bias within the majority of the mainstream media. I do not believe, however, that it is to the extent that has been publicized over the last decade or so by various sources.

In regards to the system being rigged, I wouldn’t even know how to respond. The system is made of people, millions of them. If we’re just talking about government employees, there are conservative and liberal members of the government.  Proving the system is not rigged is proving a negative, which is virtually impossible. As I mentioned at more length in my last post, conspiracies take a small, very intelligent, and well controlled group of people to pull off successfully. I’ll leave it at that.

In regards to the election itself being rigged, this is a rather dangerous conspiracy theory, and I want to combat it as much as I can before Election Day. First off, Donald Trump has been claiming for weeks that the election is rigged, before main-in ballots were sent, before early voting, and before the vast majority of Americans even submitted their vote. These claims began around his massive slide in the polls, but now that the polls have begun to even out, he seems to be singing a different tune.

Let us take a look at those polls. There are dozens of polling agencies, many of them independent polling agencies that conduct numerous polls outside of presidential elections. Gallup, for example, has been conducting scientific polling for over 80 years, since 1935. They are a company, and their reputation is everything. Where is the logic in them skewing presidential polls so they get a democrat in office for four years? Not only that, but significantly favorable polls will make people LESS inclined to go out and vote on Election Day. If they feel the race is over, why wait in line for three hours to vote?

Also, look at another factor, the historical accuracy of these polls. Polls are not perfect, which explains the margin of error; however look at Sabato’s Crystal Ball. He and his researchers have a 98% accuracy rating in predicting United States elections. This is simply one example, however if you look at the historical accuracy of polling, it proves very useful if the polls and studies are scientifically sound.

These points alone will not convince the majority of his supporters that the election is not rigged. The problem is to prove the election is not rigged, is proving a negative, and quite simply impossible. No, one cannot personally verify the accuracy of every voting machine, one cannot personally count every vote cast, and this is exactly why faith in the election system is so important.

Is our system perfect and foolproof? One could look at every election in modern US history and point to imperfections. There are already reports of erroneous voting machines changing certain people’s votes, but as is pointed out, these instances are very rare and have happened in every election in modern history. One could also look to this study.

Conspiracy theories largely work on anecdotal evidence (statistically rare or insignificant instances used as evidence of widespread and systemic problems) and leading questions. I refuse to accept evidence on a massive scale unless it’s statistically significant, so let me turn to combating questions with questions.

The premise is the big bad Clinton or Democratic machine is actively rigging the election, that she even rigged the Primaries against Bernie Sanders (as evidenced in the DNC wikileaks emails). Alright, let’s assume these are possibilities. Why, in the hell, did she not activate her big bad machine in 2008 when she lost in the primaries to Obama (both in popular vote and delegates)? Why, in the hell, did the democrats not activate their big bad machine in 2010 when the elderly electorate came out in droves to vote the democrats out of Congress in mass.

And to the point about Clinton and the Dems rigging the 2016 Primaries, there is no evidence of that. Here’s the problem with the wikileak emails, the DNC is as private organization, as is the RNC, if they favor a candidate that may be evidence of corruption within that organization, but it’s not voter fraud, and it’s not the same as rigging an election. If you do not like that system, you should work to change it, but not in the middle of a Primary.

Now, Election Day is rapidly approaching, and signs point to a close race. I am not telling you for whom to vote, I’m just reminding you that faith in our election system is much more important than who we decide to put in office for four years. If proof of widespread voter fraud comes fourth on Election Day or soon after, we will certainly have a major problem on our hands; however until that time comes, it is critical not to flip the Monopoly board before the game is over. Something is not rigged just because one man perceives it to be so. Keep thinking for yourselves.