I wanted to speak (as briefly as possible) about the upcoming election, looking at a troubling and widespread claim, election rigging. First off, this will not be a post aimed at favoring one candidate over another, I hope the tightening that is taking place in the polls will be evidence enough of this fact. This is rather a hope to, again, encourage people to maintain faith in the system until there’s actual evidence to not.
The thought that this election has been rigged has come to
full blown conspiracy. This seems to have been broken into a few segments that I
will list below.
- The media is rigged: this is not a new complaint, and I will not be spending significant time on this section.
- The system is rigged: This has included all federal government agencies favoring one candidate over the other. Again, I do not intend to tackle this subject at length either; it’s far too broad a topi
- The election itself is rigged: that polls are rigged, votes are being changed, that voters for a certain candidate are voting multiple times etc., this is where I will aim my focus.
On the first two, I’m going to simplify the hell out of my
thoughts. I will say that, for a multitude of reasons I believe there is an
inherent liberal bias within the majority of the mainstream media. I do not
believe, however, that it is to the extent that has been publicized over the
last decade or so by various sources.
In regards to the system being rigged, I wouldn’t even know
how to respond. The system is made of people, millions of them. If we’re just
talking about government employees, there are conservative and liberal members
of the government. Proving the system is not rigged is proving a
negative, which is virtually impossible. As I mentioned at more length in my
last post, conspiracies take a small, very intelligent, and well controlled
group of people to pull off successfully. I’ll leave it at that.
In regards to the election itself being rigged, this is a
rather dangerous conspiracy theory, and I want to combat it as much as I can before
Election Day. First off, Donald Trump has been claiming for weeks that the
election is rigged, before main-in ballots were sent, before early voting, and
before the vast majority of Americans even submitted their vote. These claims
began around his massive slide in the polls, but now that the polls have begun
to even out, he seems to be singing a different tune.
Let us take a look at those polls. There are dozens of
polling agencies, many of them independent polling agencies that conduct numerous
polls outside of presidential elections. Gallup, for example, has been
conducting scientific polling for over 80 years, since 1935. They are a
company, and their reputation is everything. Where is the logic in them skewing
presidential polls so they get a democrat in office for four years? Not only
that, but significantly favorable polls will make people LESS inclined to go
out and vote on Election Day. If they feel the race is over, why wait in line
for three hours to vote?
Also, look at another factor, the historical accuracy of
these polls. Polls are not perfect, which explains the margin of error; however
look at Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
He and his researchers have a 98% accuracy rating in predicting United States
elections. This is simply one example, however if you look at the historical accuracy
of polling, it proves very useful if the polls and studies are scientifically
sound.
These points alone will not convince the majority of his
supporters that the election is not rigged. The problem is to prove the
election is not rigged, is proving a negative, and quite simply impossible. No,
one cannot personally verify the accuracy of every voting machine, one cannot personally
count every vote cast, and this is exactly why faith in the election system is
so important.
Is our system perfect and foolproof? One could look at every
election in modern US history and point to imperfections. There are already
reports of erroneous voting machines changing certain people’s votes, but as is
pointed out, these instances are very rare and have happened in every election in modern
history. One could also look to this study.
Conspiracy theories largely work on anecdotal evidence (statistically
rare or insignificant instances used as evidence of widespread and systemic
problems) and leading questions. I refuse to accept evidence on a massive scale
unless it’s statistically significant, so let me turn to combating questions
with questions.
The premise is the big bad Clinton or Democratic machine is
actively rigging the election, that she even rigged the Primaries against
Bernie Sanders (as evidenced in the DNC wikileaks emails). Alright, let’s
assume these are possibilities. Why, in the hell, did she not activate her big
bad machine in 2008 when she lost in the primaries to Obama (both in popular
vote and delegates)? Why, in the hell, did the democrats not activate their big
bad machine in 2010 when the elderly electorate came out in droves to vote the
democrats out of Congress in mass.
And to the point about Clinton and the Dems rigging the 2016 Primaries, there is no evidence of that. Here’s the problem with the wikileak
emails, the DNC is as private organization, as is the RNC, if they favor a
candidate that may be evidence of corruption within that organization, but it’s
not voter fraud, and it’s not the same as rigging an election. If you do not
like that system, you should work to change it, but not in the middle of a Primary.
Now, Election Day is rapidly approaching, and signs point to
a close race. I am not telling you for whom to vote, I’m just reminding you
that faith in our election system is much more important than who we decide to
put in office for four years. If proof of widespread voter fraud comes fourth
on Election Day or soon after, we will certainly have a major problem on our hands;
however until that time comes, it is critical not to flip the Monopoly board
before the game is over. Something is not rigged just because one man perceives
it to be so. Keep thinking for yourselves.
